Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Atlanta Falcons 4th & 6 at the 85

Atlanta Falcons 0 – Houston Texans 0

(13:44) 13-B.Pinion punts 41 yards to HOU 44, Center-49-L.McCullough. 3-N.Dell to ATL 47 for 9 yards (49-L.McCullough).

The Three Options

GO -2.22 EP

44% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 79, worth +1.26 EP
56% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 85, worth -4.93 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (102 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model