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Houston Texans

HC DeMeco Ryans
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Atlanta Falcons

HC Arthur Smith
Sunday 2023-10-08 · 13:00 Mercedes-Benz Stadium, Atlanta US ☀️ Clear Spread 2.5 O/U 42.0

Win Probability

HOU
46.9%
ATL
53.1%
☀️ Clear

Confidence: <strong>coin flip</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • QB edge to HOU: Desmond Ridder (ATL) -0.119 vs C.J. Stroud (HOU) +0.128 EPA/dropback
  • HOU offense: -0.067 EPA/play over its last 8 games (20th in the league)
  • ATL offense: -0.073 EPA/play over its last 8 games (23rd in the league)

Predicted Final Score

HOU 20
–
ATL 22
Projected margin: ATL by 2 Projected total: 42

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 5

HOU

Christian Harris LB Out Concussion
Josh Jones G Out Hand
John Metchie WR Questionable Illness
Laremy Tunsil T Questionable Knee
Maliek Collins DT Questionable Abdomen
Shaquill Griffin CB Questionable Calf
Jake Hansen LB Questionable Neck

ATL

No players on the report.

Pulled fresh for 2023 week 5 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

HOU 19
–
ATL 21

Prediction missed by 0 pts on margin, 2 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 10:42 FG HOU (10:42) 15-K.Fairbairn 38 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-11-C.Johnston. HOU 3 – ATL 0
  • Q1 06:53 TD ATL (6:53) (Shotgun) 9-D.Ridder left end for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN. HOU 3 – ATL 6
  • Q2 14:15 FG HOU (14:15) 15-K.Fairbairn 43 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-11-C.Johnston. HOU 6 – ATL 7
  • Q2 00:06 FG HOU (:06) 15-K.Fairbairn 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-11-C.Johnston. HOU 9 – ATL 7
  • Q3 09:39 FG HOU (9:39) 15-K.Fairbairn 42 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-11-C.Johnston. HOU 12 – ATL 7
  • Q4 12:17 TD ATL (12:17) (Shotgun) 9-D.Ridder pass short middle to 7-B.Robinson for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN. HOU 12 – ATL 13
  • Q4 07:00 FG ATL (7:00) 6-Y.Koo 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-L.McCullough, Holder-13-B.Pinion. HOU 12 – ATL 18
  • Q4 01:54 TD HOU (1:54) (Shotgun) 7-C.Stroud pass deep middle to 86-D.Schultz for 18 yards, TOUCHDOWN. HOU 18 – ATL 18
  • Q4 00:02 FG ATL (:02) 6-Y.Koo 37 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-L.McCullough, Holder-13-B.Pinion. Penalty on HOU-25-G.Arnold, Defensive Offside, declined. Penalty on HOU-25-G.Arnold, Running Into the Kicker, declined. HOU 19 – ATL 21

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 ATL 4th & 6 at the 85
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 44%

    (13:44) 13-B.Pinion punts 41 yards to HOU 44, Center-49-L.McCullough. 3-N.Dell to ATL 47 for 9 yards (49-L.McCullough).

  • Q1 HOU 4th & 1 at the 19
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.32 EP
    p(convert) 65% p(FG) 93%

    (10:42) 15-K.Fairbairn 38 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-11-C.Johnston.

  • Q1 HOU 4th & 10 at the 60
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 33%

    (4:42) 11-C.Johnston punts 48 yards to ATL 12, Center-46-J.Weeks. 21-M.Hughes pushed ob at ATL 22 for 10 yards (23-E.Murray).

  • Q1 ATL 4th & 10 at the 59
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32%

    (2:22) 13-B.Pinion punts 43 yards to HOU 16, Center-49-L.McCullough. 2-R.Woods pushed ob at HOU 26 for 10 yards (37-D.Hellams; 49-L.McCullough).

  • Q2 HOU 4th & 10 at the 25
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 29% p(FG) 87%

    (14:15) 15-K.Fairbairn 43 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-11-C.Johnston.

  • Q2 ATL 4th & 3 at the 68
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 53%

    (13:04) 13-B.Pinion punts 38 yards to HOU 30, Center-49-L.McCullough, fair catch by 3-N.Dell.

  • Q2 HOU 4th & 9 at the 47
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 33% p(FG) 40%

    (11:19) 11-C.Johnston punts 36 yards to ATL 11, Center-46-J.Weeks, fair catch by 21-M.Hughes.

  • Q2 ATL 4th & 16 at the 45
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 24% p(FG) 45%

    (8:06) 13-B.Pinion punts 45 yards to end zone, Center-49-L.McCullough, Touchback.

  • Q2 HOU 4th & 5 at the 75
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 46%

    (6:43) 11-C.Johnston punts 43 yards to ATL 32, Center-46-J.Weeks, out of bounds.

  • Q2 ATL 4th & 17 at the 44
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 24% p(FG) 47%

    (1:51) 13-B.Pinion punts 33 yards to HOU 11, Center-49-L.McCullough, fair catch by 2-R.Woods.

  • Q3 HOU 4th & 8 at the 44
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34% p(FG) 47%

    (11:50) 11-C.Johnston punts 27 yards to ATL 17, Center-46-J.Weeks, downed by HOU-43-N.Hewitt.

  • Q3 HOU 4th & 4 at the 24
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 43% p(FG) 88%

    (9:39) 15-K.Fairbairn 42 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-11-C.Johnston.

  • Q3 HOU 4th & 6 at the 66
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 42%

    (4:01) 11-C.Johnston punts 40 yards to ATL 26, Center-46-J.Weeks, fair catch by 21-M.Hughes.

  • Q4 HOU 4th & 2 at the 67
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.74 EP
    p(convert) 60%

    (11:19) 11-C.Johnston punts 40 yards to ATL 27, Center-46-J.Weeks, fair catch by 21-M.Hughes.

  • Q4 ATL 4th & 11 at the 14
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 26% p(FG) 96%

    (7:00) 6-Y.Koo 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-L.McCullough, Holder-13-B.Pinion.

  • Q4 ATL 4th & 3 at the 19 late-game
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 47% p(FG) 93%

    (:02) 6-Y.Koo 37 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-L.McCullough, Holder-13-B.Pinion. Penalty on HOU-25-G.Arnold, Defensive Offside, declined. Penalty on HOU-25-G.Arnold, Running Into the Kicker, declined.