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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Houston Texans 4th & 1 at the 19

Houston Texans 0 – Atlanta Falcons 0

What Actually Happened

(10:42) 15-K.Fairbairn 38 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-11-C.Johnston.

The Three Options

GO +2.70 EP
Model's Pick
  • 65% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 18, worth +4.66 EP
  • 35% chance to fail: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 19, worth -0.98 EP
KICK +1.36 EP
What Happened
  • 92% chance to make a 36-yard field goal: 3 points, then Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.63 EP
  • 8% chance to miss: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 29, worth -1.71 EP
PUNT -0.34 EP
  • Atlanta Falcons would take over around their own 11, worth -0.34 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.34 EP