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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Houston Texans 4th & 2 at the 67

Houston Texans 12 – Atlanta Falcons 15

What Actually Happened

(11:19) 11-C.Johnston punts 40 yards to ATL 27, Center-46-J.Weeks, fair catch by 21-M.Hughes.

The Three Options

GO -0.52 EP
Model's Pick
  • 60% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.58 EP
  • 40% chance to fail: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 67, worth -3.71 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (84 yards).

PUNT -1.26 EP
What Happened
  • Atlanta Falcons would take over around their own 25, worth -1.26 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.74 EP