4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Atlanta Falcons 4th & 3 at the 19

Atlanta Falcons 18 – Houston Texans 19

What Actually Happened

(:02) 6-Y.Koo 37 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-L.McCullough, Holder-13-B.Pinion. Penalty on HOU-25-G.Arnold, Defensive Offside, declined. Penalty on HOU-25-G.Arnold, Running Into the Kicker, declined.

The Three Options

GO +0.67 EP
  • 47% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 16, worth +1.42 EP
  • 53% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 19, worth +0.01 EP
KICK +2.76 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 92% chance to make a 36-yard field goal: 3 points, then Houston Texans takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +3.00 EP
  • 8% chance to miss: Houston Texans takes over around their own 29, worth -0.02 EP
PUNT +0.03 EP
  • Houston Texans would take over around their own 11, worth +0.03 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model