Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 9 at the 58

Jacksonville Jaguars 11 – Buffalo Bills 0

What Actually Happened

(10:21) 9-L.Cooke punts 44 yards to BUF 14, Center-46-R.Matiscik, fair catch by 11-D.Harty. PENALTY on BUF-46-J.Ingram, Offensive Holding, 7 yards, enforced at BUF 14.

The Three Options

GO -1.31 EP

32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 49, worth +2.88 EP
68% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 58, worth -3.31 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (75 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model