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Jacksonville Jaguars

3-2 HC Doug Pederson
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BUF Home

Buffalo Bills

3-2 HC Sean McDermott
Sunday 2023-10-08 · 09:30 ET Tottenham Stadium, London GB ☀️ Clear Spread 5.5 O/U 48.5

Win Probability

JAX
28.4%
BUF
71.6%
☀️ Clear

Confidence: strong edge Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the full track record.

Key Insights

  • Neutral site — no home-field edge
  • BUF offense: +0.119 EPA/play over its last 8 games (3rd in the league)
  • BUF defense: -0.171 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (3rd in the league)
  • JAX offense: -0.085 EPA/play over its last 8 games (25th in the league)
  • Josh Allen (BUF): +0.125 EPA/dropback in prior starts

New to these stats? NFL 101 Glossary →

Predicted Final Score

JAX 19 12–26
–
BUF 26 19–33
Projected margin: BUF by 7 Projected total: 45

The range under each score is this model's typical error on unseen games — ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat the bigger number as the middle of that range, not a precise call — see the full track record.

Injury Report — Week 5

JAX

Christian Braswell CB Out Hamstring
Devin Lloyd LB Out Thumb
Parker Washington WR Out Knee
Dawuane Smoot LB Out Achilles
Jamal Agnew WR Questionable Quadricep
Folorunso Fatukasi DT Questionable Shoulder
Antonio Johnson S Questionable Hamstring
Zay Jones WR Questionable Knee

BUF

Tre'Davious White CB Out Achilles
Gregory Rousseau DE Doubtful Foot
Shaq Lawson DE Questionable Toe
Christian Benford CB Questionable Shoulder
Von Miller LB Questionable Knee

Pulled fresh for 2023 week 5 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

JAX 25
–
BUF 20

Prediction missed by 12 pts on margin, 0 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 07:04 TD JAX (7:04) (Shotgun) 16-T.Lawrence pass short right to 7-Z.Jones for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PENALTY on BUF-91-E.Oliver, Roughing the Passer, 1 yard, enforced between downs. JAX 6 – BUF 0
  • Q1 01:17 FG JAX (1:17) 10-B.McManus 44 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-R.Matiscik, Holder-9-L.Cooke. JAX 11 – BUF 0
  • Q2 01:19 TD BUF (1:19) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass short right to 14-S.Diggs for 15 yards, TOUCHDOWN. JAX 11 – BUF 6
  • Q4 07:50 TD JAX (7:50) 1-T.Etienne right end for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN. JAX 17 – BUF 7
  • Q4 04:08 TD BUF (4:08) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass deep left to 13-G.Davis for 19 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Penalty on JAX-32-Ty.Campbell, Defensive Pass Interference, declined. JAX 18 – BUF 13
  • Q4 03:04 TD JAX (3:04) 1-T.Etienne left guard for 35 yards, TOUCHDOWN. JAX 24 – BUF 13
  • Q4 02:18 TD BUF (2:18) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen scrambles right guard for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. JAX 25 – BUF 19

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 JAX 4th & 1 at the 60
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.03 EP
    p(convert) 68%

    (12:43) 9-L.Cooke punts 60 yards to end zone, Center-46-R.Matiscik, Touchback.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q1 BUF 4th & 2 at the 72
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.51 EP
    p(convert) 63%

    (11:16) 8-S.Martin punts 45 yards to JAX 27, Center-69-R.Ferguson, fair catch by 39-J.Agnew.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q1 BUF 4th & 1 at the 66
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.10 EP
    p(convert) 73%

    (5:12) 8-S.Martin punts 41 yards to JAX 25, Center-69-R.Ferguson. 39-J.Agnew to JAX 30 for 5 yards (33-S.Neal; 42-D.Williams).

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q1 JAX 4th & 5 at the 26
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 38% p(FG) 85%

    (1:17) 10-B.McManus 44 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-R.Matiscik, Holder-9-L.Cooke.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q2 BUF 4th & 3 at the 57
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.75 EP
    p(convert) 55%

    (14:13) 8-S.Martin punts 35 yards to JAX 22, Center-69-R.Ferguson, out of bounds.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q2 JAX 4th & 9 at the 58
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32%

    (10:21) 9-L.Cooke punts 44 yards to BUF 14, Center-46-R.Matiscik, fair catch by 11-D.Harty. PENALTY on BUF-46-J.Ingram, Offensive Holding, 7 yards, enforced at BUF 14.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q2 BUF 4th & 6 at the 74
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 45%

    (7:58) 8-S.Martin punts 53 yards to JAX 21, Center-69-R.Ferguson, fair catch by 39-J.Agnew.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q2 JAX 4th & 2 at the 71
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.57 EP
    p(convert) 59%

    (5:53) 9-L.Cooke punts 57 yards to BUF 14, Center-46-R.Matiscik, fair catch by 11-D.Harty.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q3 BUF 4th & 10 at the 61
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 35%

    (13:46) 8-S.Martin punts 50 yards to JAX 11, Center-69-R.Ferguson. 39-J.Agnew to JAX 10 for -1 yards (59-K.Jonathan). PENALTY on JAX-30-M.Brown, Offensive Holding, 5 yards, enforced at JAX 11.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q3 BUF 4th & 10 at the 42
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 33% p(FG) 50%

    (8:03) 8-S.Martin punts 34 yards to JAX 8, Center-69-R.Ferguson, fair catch by 39-J.Agnew.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q4 JAX 4th & 6 at the 45 late-game
    Chose PUNT Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.76 EP
    p(convert) 37% p(FG) 42%

    (:30) 9-L.Cooke punts 40 yards to BUF 5, Center-46-R.Matiscik. 11-D.Harty MUFFS catch, touched at BUF 6, ball out of bounds at BUF 6.

    See the full breakdown →