Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Buffalo Bills 4th & 6 at the 74

Buffalo Bills 0 – Jacksonville Jaguars 11

(7:58) 8-S.Martin punts 53 yards to JAX 21, Center-69-R.Ferguson, fair catch by 39-J.Agnew.

The Three Options

GO -1.54 EP

45% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 68, worth +1.69 EP
55% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 74, worth -4.23 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (91 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model