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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 1 at the 60

Jacksonville Jaguars 0 – Buffalo Bills 0

What Actually Happened

(12:43) 9-L.Cooke punts 60 yards to end zone, Center-46-R.Matiscik, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO +0.19 EP
Model's Pick
  • 68% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 59, worth +1.93 EP
  • 32% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 60, worth -3.55 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (77 yards).

PUNT -0.85 EP
What Happened
  • Buffalo Bills would take over around their own 19, worth -0.85 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.03 EP