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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 2 at the 71

Jacksonville Jaguars 11 – Buffalo Bills 0

What Actually Happened

(5:53) 9-L.Cooke punts 57 yards to BUF 14, Center-46-R.Matiscik, fair catch by 11-D.Harty.

The Three Options

GO -0.90 EP
Model's Pick
  • 59% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 69, worth +1.35 EP
  • 41% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 71, worth -4.10 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (88 yards).

PUNT -1.47 EP
What Happened
  • Buffalo Bills would take over around their own 29, worth -1.47 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.57 EP