Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Buffalo Bills 4th & 10 at the 61

Buffalo Bills 7 – Jacksonville Jaguars 11

What Actually Happened

(13:46) 8-S.Martin punts 50 yards to JAX 11, Center-69-R.Ferguson. 39-J.Agnew to JAX 10 for -1 yards (59-K.Jonathan). PENALTY on JAX-30-M.Brown, Offensive Holding, 5 yards, enforced at JAX 11.

The Three Options

GO -1.18 EP

35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 51, worth +2.95 EP
65% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 61, worth -3.45 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (78 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model