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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Buffalo Bills 4th & 10 at the 42

Buffalo Bills 7 – Jacksonville Jaguars 11

What Actually Happened

(8:03) 8-S.Martin punts 34 yards to JAX 8, Center-69-R.Ferguson, fair catch by 39-J.Agnew.

The Three Options

GO -0.09 EP
  • 33% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 32, worth +3.97 EP
  • 67% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 42, worth -2.11 EP
KICK -0.30 EP
  • 50% chance to make a 59-yard field goal: 3 points, then Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.13 EP
  • 50% chance to miss: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 49, worth -2.74 EP
PUNT -0.06 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Jacksonville Jaguars would take over around their own 12, worth -0.06 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model