4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New Orleans Saints 4th & 8 at the 41

New Orleans Saints 21 – New England Patriots 0

What Actually Happened

(1:11) 39-L.Hedley punts 22 yards to NE 19, Center-49-Z.Wood. 5-J.Peppers MUFFS catch, touched at NE 18, ball out of bounds at NE 18.

The Three Options

GO +0.03 EP
Model's Pick
  • 34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 33, worth +3.43 EP
  • 66% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 41, worth -1.69 EP
KICK -0.09 EP
  • 50% chance to make a 58-yard field goal: 3 points, then New England Patriots takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.13 EP
  • 50% chance to miss: New England Patriots takes over around their own 49, worth -2.30 EP
PUNT -0.04 EP
What Happened
  • New England Patriots would take over around their own 12, worth -0.04 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model