Win Probability
Confidence: slight edge Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the full track record.
Key Insights
- NE offense: -0.132 EPA/play over its last 8 games (30th in the league)
- NO offense: -0.088 EPA/play over its last 8 games (26th in the league)
- Mac Jones (NE): -0.060 EPA/dropback in prior starts
- NE defense: -0.033 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (14th in the league)
New to these stats? NFL 101 Glossary →
Predicted Final Score
The range under each score is this model's typical error on unseen games — ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat the bigger number as the middle of that range, not a precise call — see the full track record.
Injury Report — Week 5
NO
NE
Pulled fresh for 2023 week 5 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.
Actual Result
Prediction missed by 35 pts on margin, 7 pts on total.
Scoring Summary
- Q1 07:11 TD NO (7:11) (Shotgun) 10-M.Jones pass short middle intended for 38-R.Stevenson INTERCEPTED by 32-T.Mathieu [96-C.Granderson] at NE 27. 32-T.Mathieu for 27 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NO 6 – NE 0
- Q2 14:27 TD NO (14:27) NO 4-Carr now at QB. 73-M.Garcia reported in as eligible. 41-A.Kamara right guard for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NO 13 – NE 0
- Q2 10:53 TD NO (10:53) 4-D.Carr pass short middle to 12-C.Olave for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NO 20 – NE 0
- Q3 11:40 FG NO (11:40) 19-B.Grupe 54 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-Z.Wood, Holder-39-L.Hedley. NO 24 – NE 0
- Q4 13:10 TD NO (13:10) NO 4-Carr now at QB. (Shotgun) 4-D.Carr pass short middle to 87-F.Moreau for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NO 30 – NE 0
- Q4 05:47 FG NO (5:47) 19-B.Grupe 53 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-Z.Wood, Holder-39-L.Hedley. NO 34 – NE 0
Fourth-Down Decisions
-
Q1 NE 4th & 2 at the 86Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.58 EPp(convert) 60%
(9:32) 17-B.Baringer punts 26 yards to NE 40, Center-49-J.Cardona, out of bounds.
See the full breakdown → -
Q1 NO 4th & 9 at the 39Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 32% p(FG) 55%
(7:58) 39-L.Hedley punts 39 yards to end zone, Center-49-Z.Wood, Touchback.
See the full breakdown → -
Q1 NE 4th & 3 at the 30Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 46% p(FG) 77%
(3:45) 37-C.Ryland 48 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-17-B.Baringer.
See the full breakdown → -
Q2 NE 4th & 6 at the 79Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 41%
(13:30) 17-B.Baringer punts 43 yards to NO 36, Center-49-J.Cardona, out of bounds. PENALTY on NE-18-M.Slater, Illegal Touch Kick, 5 yards, enforced at NO 36.
See the full breakdown → -
Q2 NE 4th & 8 at the 61Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 34%
(6:52) 17-B.Baringer punts 45 yards to NO 16, Center-49-J.Cardona, fair catch by 22-R.Shaheed.
See the full breakdown → -
Q2 NO 4th & 8 at the 41Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 34% p(FG) 50%
(1:11) 39-L.Hedley punts 22 yards to NE 19, Center-49-Z.Wood. 5-J.Peppers MUFFS catch, touched at NE 18, ball out of bounds at NE 18.
See the full breakdown → -
Q3 NO 4th & 16 at the 35Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 24% p(FG) 66%
(11:40) 19-B.Grupe 54 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-Z.Wood, Holder-39-L.Hedley.
See the full breakdown → -
Q3 NE 4th & 3 at the 40Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.75 EPp(convert) 47% p(FG) 53%
(9:55) 17-B.Baringer punts 27 yards to NO 13, Center-49-J.Cardona, fair catch by 22-R.Shaheed.
See the full breakdown → -
Q3 NO 4th & 2 at the 79Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.62 EPp(convert) 61%
(7:59) 39-L.Hedley punts 44 yards to NE 35, Center-49-Z.Wood, fair catch by 5-J.Peppers.
See the full breakdown → -
Q3 NE 4th & 12 at the 67Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 29%
(6:51) 17-B.Baringer punts 57 yards to NO 10, Center-49-J.Cardona. 22-R.Shaheed to NO 26 for 16 yards (21-A.Phillips). PENALTY on NO-1-A.Taylor, Offensive Holding, 5 yards, enforced at NO 10.
See the full breakdown → -
Q3 NO 4th & 8 at the 53Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 35% p(FG) 21%
(1:21) 39-L.Hedley punts 43 yards to NE 10, Center-49-Z.Wood, fair catch by 27-M.Bryant.
See the full breakdown → -
Q4 NE 4th & 4 at the 69Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 46%
(11:44) 17-B.Baringer punts 51 yards to NO 18, Center-49-J.Cardona, fair catch by 22-R.Shaheed.
See the full breakdown → -
Q4 NO 4th & 7 at the 79Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 40%
(9:11) 39-L.Hedley punts 55 yards to NE 24, Center-49-Z.Wood, downed by NO-42-T.Summers.
See the full breakdown → -
Q4 NE 4th & 1 at the 67Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 69%
(7:22) 38-R.Stevenson up the middle to NE 33 for no gain (56-D.Davis).
See the full breakdown → -
Q4 NO 4th & 12 at the 35Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 27% p(FG) 66%
(5:47) 19-B.Grupe 53 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-Z.Wood, Holder-39-L.Hedley.
See the full breakdown → -
Q4 NE 4th & 2 at the 67 late-gameChose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 58%
(4:16) 17-B.Baringer punts 50 yards to NO 17, Center-49-J.Cardona. 22-R.Shaheed pushed ob at NO 29 for 12 yards (45-C.Board).
See the full breakdown → -
Q4 NO 4th & 10 at the 71 late-gameChose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 34%
(2:26) 39-L.Hedley punts 50 yards to NE 21, Center-49-Z.Wood. 5-J.Peppers to NE 27 for 6 yards (27-I.Yiadom). PENALTY on NE-18-M.Slater, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 10 yards, enforced at NE 22.
See the full breakdown → -
Q4 NE 4th & 5 at the 83 late-gameChose GO Model wanted PUNT instead — cost +0.41 EPp(convert) 44%
(1:55) (Shotgun) 4-B.Zappe pass incomplete short right to 14-T.Montgomery.
See the full breakdown →
