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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 New England Patriots 4th & 3 at the 40

New England Patriots 0 – New Orleans Saints 24

What Actually Happened

(9:55) 17-B.Baringer punts 27 yards to NO 13, Center-49-J.Cardona, fair catch by 22-R.Shaheed.

The Three Options

GO +0.71 EP
Model's Pick
  • 47% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 37, worth +3.68 EP
  • 53% chance to fail: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 40, worth -1.96 EP
KICK -0.17 EP
  • 53% chance to make a 57-yard field goal: 3 points, then New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.14 EP
  • 47% chance to miss: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 49, worth -2.74 EP
PUNT -0.04 EP
What Happened
  • New Orleans Saints would take over around their own 11, worth -0.04 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.75 EP