4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 New Orleans Saints 4th & 2 at the 79

New Orleans Saints 24 – New England Patriots 0

What Actually Happened

(7:59) 39-L.Hedley punts 44 yards to NE 35, Center-49-Z.Wood, fair catch by 5-J.Peppers.

The Three Options

GO -1.39 EP
Model's Pick
  • 61% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 77, worth +0.68 EP
  • 39% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 79, worth -4.67 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (96 yards).

PUNT -2.01 EP
What Happened
  • New England Patriots would take over around their own 36, worth -2.01 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.62 EP