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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 New Orleans Saints 4th & 8 at the 53

New Orleans Saints 24 – New England Patriots 0

What Actually Happened

(1:21) 39-L.Hedley punts 43 yards to NE 10, Center-49-Z.Wood, fair catch by 27-M.Bryant.

The Three Options

GO -0.92 EP
  • 35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 45, worth +2.89 EP
  • 65% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 53, worth -2.97 EP
KICK -1.84 EP
  • 21% chance to make a 70-yard field goal: 3 points, then New England Patriots takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.81 EP
  • 79% chance to miss: New England Patriots takes over around their own 49, worth -2.81 EP
PUNT -0.79 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • New England Patriots would take over around their own 15, worth -0.79 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model