Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New England Patriots 4th & 4 at the 69

New England Patriots 0 – New Orleans Saints 31

(11:44) 17-B.Baringer punts 51 yards to NO 18, Center-49-J.Cardona, fair catch by 22-R.Shaheed.

The Three Options

GO -1.24 EP

46% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.70 EP
54% chance to fail: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 69, worth -3.77 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (86 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model