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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New England Patriots 4th & 2 at the 67

New England Patriots 0 – New Orleans Saints 34

What Actually Happened

(4:16) 17-B.Baringer punts 50 yards to NO 17, Center-49-J.Cardona. 22-R.Shaheed pushed ob at NO 29 for 12 yards (45-C.Board).

The Three Options

GO -0.73 EP
Model's Pick
  • 58% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.20 EP
  • 42% chance to fail: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 67, worth -3.37 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (84 yards).

PUNT -0.89 EP
What Happened
  • New Orleans Saints would take over around their own 25, worth -0.89 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model