Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New Orleans Saints 4th & 10 at the 71

New Orleans Saints 34 – New England Patriots 0

What Actually Happened

(2:26) 39-L.Hedley punts 50 yards to NE 21, Center-49-Z.Wood. 5-J.Peppers to NE 27 for 6 yards (27-I.Yiadom). PENALTY on NE-18-M.Slater, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 10 yards, enforced at NE 22.

The Three Options

GO -1.84 EP

34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 61, worth +1.51 EP
66% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 71, worth -3.55 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (88 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model