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Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades.
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Q1
New Orleans Saints
4th & 9 at the 39
New Orleans Saints 0 – New England Patriots 0
What Actually Happened
(7:58) 39-L.Hedley punts 39 yards to end zone, Center-49-Z.Wood, Touchback.
The Three Options
GO
-0.42 EP
Model's Pick
-
32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 30, worth +3.80 EP
- 68% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 39, worth -2.37 EP
KICK
-0.44 EP
- 55% chance to make a 56-yard field goal: 3 points, then New England Patriots takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.66 EP
- 45% chance to miss: New England Patriots takes over around their own 48, worth -3.04 EP
PUNT
-0.47 EP
What Happened
- New England Patriots would take over around their own 11, worth -0.47 EP
The Verdict
Chose PUNT
✓ matched the model
