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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Los Angeles Rams 4th & 7 at the 73

Los Angeles Rams 7 – Philadelphia Eagles 7

What Actually Happened

(10:55) 42-E.Evans punts 65 yards to PHI 8, Center-47-A.Ward. 18-B.Covey to PHI 28 for 20 yards (35-J.Hummel).

The Three Options

GO -1.58 EP
  • 41% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 66, worth +1.94 EP
  • 59% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 73, worth -4.08 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (90 yards).

PUNT -1.31 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Philadelphia Eagles would take over around their own 31, worth -1.31 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model