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Philadelphia Eagles

HC Nick Sirianni
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LA Home

Los Angeles Rams

HC Sean McVay
Sunday 2023-10-08 · 16:05 SoFi Stadium, Inglewood US 🏟 Dome Spread -3.5 O/U 50.5

Win Probability

PHI
55.7%
LA
44.3%
🏟 Dome

Confidence: <strong>slight edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • PHI offense: +0.105 EPA/play over its last 8 games (4th in the league)
  • Indoors — weather neutralised
  • LA offense: +0.028 EPA/play over its last 8 games (9th in the league)
  • Jalen Hurts (PHI): +0.117 EPA/dropback in prior starts

Predicted Final Score

PHI 25
–
LA 23
Projected margin: PHI by 2 Projected total: 48

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 5

PHI

Fletcher Cox DT Out Back
Cam Jurgens G Out Foot
Marlon Tuipulotu DT Out Triceps
Sydney Brown S Out Hamstring
Rashaad Penny RB Doubtful Illness
Britain Covey WR Questionable Concussion

LA

Joseph Noteboom T Out Groin
Desjuan Johnson DT Doubtful Thumb
Alaric Jackson T Questionable Hamstring

Pulled fresh for 2023 week 5 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

PHI 23
–
LA 14

Prediction missed by 7 pts on margin, 11 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 08:41 TD PHI (8:41) (Shotgun) 1-J.Hurts pass short middle to 88-D.Goedert for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PHI 6 – LA 0
  • Q1 02:04 TD LA (2:04) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass short left to 5-T.Atwell for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PHI 7 – LA 6
  • Q2 02:19 FG PHI (2:19) 4-J.Elliott 34 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-45-R.Lovato, Holder-10-B.Mann. PHI 10 – LA 7
  • Q2 00:38 TD LA (:38) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass deep right to 17-P.Nacua for 22 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PHI 10 – LA 13
  • Q2 00:02 TD PHI (:02) 1-J.Hurts up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. PHI 16 – LA 14
  • Q4 12:33 FG PHI (12:33) 4-J.Elliott 26 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-45-R.Lovato, Holder-10-B.Mann. PHI 20 – LA 14
  • Q4 04:09 FG PHI (4:09) 4-J.Elliott 26 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-45-R.Lovato, Holder-10-B.Mann. PHI 23 – LA 14

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 LA 4th & 1 at the 22
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 67% p(FG) 91%

    (4:05) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass short right to 10-C.Kupp to PHI 10 for 12 yards (39-E.Ricks, 32-R.Blankenship) [7-H.Reddick].

  • Q2 PHI 4th & 10 at the 50
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 35% p(FG) 35%

    (13:48) 10-B.Mann punts 41 yards to LA 9, Center-45-R.Lovato, fair catch by 81-A.Trammell.

  • Q2 LA 4th & 7 at the 73
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 41%

    (10:55) 42-E.Evans punts 65 yards to PHI 8, Center-47-A.Ward. 18-B.Covey to PHI 28 for 20 yards (35-J.Hummel).

  • Q2 PHI 4th & 3 at the 16
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.55 EP
    p(convert) 50% p(FG) 95%

    (2:19) 4-J.Elliott 34 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-45-R.Lovato, Holder-10-B.Mann.

  • Q3 LA 4th & 19 at the 52
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 24% p(FG) 31%

    (5:45) 42-E.Evans punts 43 yards to PHI 9, Center-47-A.Ward, fair catch by 18-B.Covey.

  • Q4 PHI 4th & 7 at the 8
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.47 EP
    p(convert) 35% p(FG) 98%

    (12:33) 4-J.Elliott 26 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-45-R.Lovato, Holder-10-B.Mann.

  • Q4 LA 4th & 5 at the 58
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 45%

    (10:07) 42-E.Evans punts 53 yards to PHI 5, Center-47-A.Ward. 18-B.Covey to PHI 20 for 15 yards (18-B.Skowronek).

  • Q4 PHI 4th & 8 at the 8 late-game
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 33% p(FG) 98%

    (4:09) 4-J.Elliott 26 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-45-R.Lovato, Holder-10-B.Mann.

  • Q4 LA 4th & 12 at the 59 late-game
    Chose GO Model wanted PUNT instead — cost +0.54 EP
    p(convert) 31%

    (2:50) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford sacked at LA 28 for -13 yards (7-H.Reddick).

  • Q4 PHI 4th & 2 at the 9 late-game
    Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.68 EP
    p(convert) 56% p(FG) 97%

    (1:08) 1-J.Hurts left guard to LA 8 for 1 yard (51-Z.VanValkenburg). The Replay Official reviewed the short of the line to gain ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands.

  • Q4 LA 4th & 5 at the 87 late-game
    Chose GO Model wanted PUNT instead — cost +0.70 EP
    p(convert) 49%

    (:29) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass short middle to 89-T.Higbee to LA 25 for 12 yards (52-Z.Cunningham).