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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 7 at the 8

Philadelphia Eagles 17 – Los Angeles Rams 14

What Actually Happened

(12:33) 4-J.Elliott 26 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-45-R.Lovato, Holder-10-B.Mann.

The Three Options

GO +2.07 EP
Model's Pick
  • 35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 1, worth +6.37 EP
  • 65% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 8, worth -0.29 EP
KICK +1.60 EP
What Happened
  • 98% chance to make a 25-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.66 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 21, worth -1.04 EP
PUNT -0.43 EP
  • Los Angeles Rams would take over around their own 11, worth -0.43 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.47 EP