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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Los Angeles Rams 4th & 5 at the 87

Los Angeles Rams 14 – Philadelphia Eagles 23

What Actually Happened

(:29) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass short middle to 89-T.Higbee to LA 25 for 12 yards (52-Z.Cunningham).

The Three Options

GO -1.20 EP
What Happened
  • 49% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 82, worth +0.10 EP
  • 51% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 87, worth -2.44 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (104 yards).

PUNT -0.50 EP
Model's Pick
  • Philadelphia Eagles would take over around their own 45, worth -0.50 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO Model wanted PUNT instead — cost +0.70 EP