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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Los Angeles Rams 4th & 1 at the 22

Los Angeles Rams 0 – Philadelphia Eagles 7

What Actually Happened

(4:05) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass short right to 10-C.Kupp to PHI 10 for 12 yards (39-E.Ricks, 32-R.Blankenship) [7-H.Reddick].

The Three Options

GO +2.93 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 67% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 21, worth +4.66 EP
  • 33% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 22, worth -0.58 EP
KICK +1.95 EP
  • 91% chance to make a 39-yard field goal: 3 points, then Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.27 EP
  • 9% chance to miss: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 32, worth -1.22 EP
PUNT +0.14 EP
  • Philadelphia Eagles would take over around their own 11, worth +0.14 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model