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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Indianapolis Colts 4th & 19 at the 25

Indianapolis Colts 7 – Tennessee Titans 3

What Actually Happened

(9:36) 7-M.Gay 43 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Holder-8-R.Sanchez.

The Three Options

GO +0.25 EP
  • 20% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 6, worth +5.62 EP
  • 80% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 25, worth -1.09 EP
KICK +1.36 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 86% chance to make a 42-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.89 EP
  • 14% chance to miss: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 35, worth -1.74 EP
PUNT -0.28 EP
  • Tennessee Titans would take over around their own 11, worth -0.28 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model