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Tennessee Titans

HC Mike Vrabel
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Indianapolis Colts

HC Shane Steichen
Sunday 2023-10-08 · 13:00 Lucas Oil Stadium, Indianapolis US ☀️ Clear Spread -2.5 O/U 43.5

Win Probability

TEN
42.0%
IND
58.0%
☀️ Clear

Confidence: <strong>slight edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • TEN offense: -0.124 EPA/play over its last 8 games (28th in the league)
  • IND offense: -0.132 EPA/play over its last 8 games (29th in the league)
  • Ryan Tannehill (TEN): -0.013 EPA/dropback in prior starts

Predicted Final Score

TEN 20
–
IND 22
Projected margin: IND by 2 Projected total: 42

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 5

TEN

Treylon Burks WR Out Knee
Luke Gifford LB Out Hamstring
Teair Tart DT Out Toe
Nicholas Petit-Frere T Out not injury related - returning from suspension

IND

Shaquille Leonard LB Out Groin
Kwity Paye DE Out Concussion
Bernhard Raimann T Out Concussion
Jonathan Taylor RB Questionable Ankle

Pulled fresh for 2023 week 5 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

TEN 16
–
IND 23

Prediction missed by 5 pts on margin, 3 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 03:17 FG TEN (3:17) 6-N.Folk 27 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-4-R.Stonehouse. TEN 3 – IND 0
  • Q1 00:50 TD IND (:50) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 21-Z.Moss up the middle for 56 yards, TOUCHDOWN. TEN 3 – IND 6
  • Q2 09:36 FG IND (9:36) 7-M.Gay 43 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Holder-8-R.Sanchez. TEN 3 – IND 10
  • Q2 04:44 FG TEN (4:44) 6-N.Folk 53 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-4-R.Stonehouse. TEN 6 – IND 10
  • Q3 12:56 TD TEN (12:56) 32-T.Spears right end for 19 yards, TOUCHDOWN. TEN 12 – IND 10
  • Q3 08:04 TD IND (8:04) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 21-Z.Moss up the middle for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. TEN 13 – IND 16
  • Q3 02:06 FG TEN (2:06) 6-N.Folk 34 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-4-R.Stonehouse. TEN 16 – IND 17
  • Q4 13:26 FG IND (13:26) 7-M.Gay 35 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Holder-8-R.Sanchez. TEN 16 – IND 20
  • Q4 01:03 FG IND (1:03) 7-M.Gay 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Holder-8-R.Sanchez. TEN 16 – IND 23

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 IND 4th & 9 at the 54
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 33%

    (11:54) 8-R.Sanchez punts 50 yards to TEN 4, Center-46-L.Rhodes. 18-K.Philips to TEN 16 for 12 yards (45-E.Speed, 43-T.Denbow).

  • Q1 TEN 4th & 6 at the 9
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.34 EP
    p(convert) 34% p(FG) 97%

    (3:17) 6-N.Folk 27 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-4-R.Stonehouse.

  • Q2 TEN 4th & 8 at the 73
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 37%

    (14:50) 4-R.Stonehouse punts 43 yards to IND 30, Center-46-M.Cox. 6-I.McKenzie to IND 35 for 5 yards (81-J.Whyle, 86-K.Rader).

  • Q2 IND 4th & 19 at the 25
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 20% p(FG) 86%

    (9:36) 7-M.Gay 43 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Holder-8-R.Sanchez.

  • Q2 TEN 4th & 3 at the 35
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.47 EP
    p(convert) 48% p(FG) 68%

    (4:44) 6-N.Folk 53 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-4-R.Stonehouse.

  • Q2 IND 4th & 1 at the 5
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 62% p(FG) 98%

    (:15) 10-G.Minshew pass incomplete short right to 83-K.Granson.

  • Q3 TEN 4th & 12 at the 16
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 25% p(FG) 94%

    (2:06) 6-N.Folk 34 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-4-R.Stonehouse.

  • Q4 IND 4th & 7 at the 17
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32% p(FG) 94%

    (13:26) 7-M.Gay 35 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Holder-8-R.Sanchez.

  • Q4 TEN 4th & 1 at the 5
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 63% p(FG) 98%

    (8:09) (Shotgun) 22-D.Henry right tackle to IND 5 for no gain (99-D.Buckner; 44-Z.Franklin).

  • Q4 IND 4th & 2 at the 10 late-game
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 52% p(FG) 97%

    (1:03) 7-M.Gay 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Holder-8-R.Sanchez.

  • Q4 TEN 4th & 2 at the 67 late-game
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 59%

    (:45) (Shotgun) 17-R.Tannehill pass short right to 81-J.Whyle to TEN 40 for 7 yards (23-K.Moore; 44-Z.Franklin).