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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Tennessee Titans 4th & 3 at the 35

Tennessee Titans 3 – Indianapolis Colts 10

What Actually Happened

(4:44) 6-N.Folk 53 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-4-R.Stonehouse.

The Three Options

GO +0.90 EP
Model's Pick
  • 48% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 32, worth +3.72 EP
  • 52% chance to fail: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 35, worth -1.76 EP
KICK +0.37 EP
What Happened
  • 66% chance to make a 52-yard field goal: 3 points, then Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.81 EP
  • 34% chance to miss: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 45, worth -2.48 EP
PUNT -0.39 EP
  • Indianapolis Colts would take over around their own 11, worth -0.39 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.53 EP