4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Tennessee Titans 4th & 12 at the 16

Tennessee Titans 13 – Indianapolis Colts 17

What Actually Happened

(2:06) 6-N.Folk 34 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-4-R.Stonehouse.

The Three Options

GO +0.87 EP
  • 25% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 4, worth +5.91 EP
  • 75% chance to fail: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 16, worth -0.80 EP
KICK +1.63 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 94% chance to make a 33-yard field goal: 3 points, then Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.81 EP
  • 6% chance to miss: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 26, worth -1.23 EP
PUNT -0.21 EP
  • Indianapolis Colts would take over around their own 11, worth -0.21 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model