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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Tennessee Titans 4th & 2 at the 67

Tennessee Titans 16 – Indianapolis Colts 23

What Actually Happened

(:45) (Shotgun) 17-R.Tannehill pass short right to 81-J.Whyle to TEN 40 for 7 yards (23-K.Moore; 44-Z.Franklin).

The Three Options

GO -0.02 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 59% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +0.63 EP
  • 41% chance to fail: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 67, worth -0.98 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (84 yards).

PUNT -0.19 EP
  • Indianapolis Colts would take over around their own 25, worth -0.19 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model