Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Denver Broncos 4th & 12 at the 63

Denver Broncos 0 – Kansas City Chiefs 10

What Actually Happened

(:22) 9-R.Dixon punts 29 yards to KC 34, Center-48-M.Fraboni, downed by DEN-37-R.Moss. PENALTY on DEN-37-R.Moss, Illegal Touch Kick, 5 yards, enforced at KC 34.

The Three Options

GO -0.90 EP

31% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 51, worth +1.34 EP
69% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 63, worth -1.92 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (80 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model