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Denver Broncos

1-5 HC Sean Payton
@
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Kansas City Chiefs

5-1 HC Andy Reid
Thursday 2023-10-12 · 20:15 ET GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium, Kansas City US 💨 Windy Spread 10.5 O/U 47.5

Win Probability

DEN
22.4%
KC
77.6%
💨 Windy

Confidence: strong edge Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the full track record.

Key Insights

  • KC offense: +0.152 EPA/play over its last 8 games (1st in the league)
  • QB edge to KC: Patrick Mahomes (KC) +0.231 vs Russell Wilson (DEN) -0.059 EPA/dropback
  • DEN defense: +0.199 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (32nd in the league)
  • KC defense: -0.044 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (10th in the league)
  • DEN offense: -0.018 EPA/play over its last 8 games (12th in the league)
  • Wind 15 mph

New to these stats? NFL 101 Glossary →

Predicted Final Score

DEN 18 11–25
–
KC 27 20–34
Projected margin: KC by 9 Projected total: 45

The range under each score is this model's typical error on unseen games — ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat the bigger number as the middle of that range, not a precise call — see the full track record.

Injury Report — Week 6

DEN

Frank Clark LB Out Illness
D.J. Jones DT Out Knee
Baron Browning LB Out Knee
Greg Dulcich TE Questionable Hamstring

KC

George Karlaftis DE Questionable Hamstring
Travis Kelce TE Questionable Ankle
Tommy Townsend P Questionable left Knee

Pulled fresh for 2023 week 6 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

DEN 8
–
KC 19

Prediction missed by 2 pts on margin, 18 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 05:44 FG KC (5:44) 7-H.Butker 35 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-5-T.Townsend. DEN 0 – KC 3
  • Q2 03:09 TD KC (3:09) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass short right to 19-K.Toney for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. DEN 0 – KC 9
  • Q2 00:04 FG KC (:04) 7-H.Butker 60 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-5-T.Townsend. DEN 0 – KC 13
  • Q3 09:19 FG KC (9:19) 7-H.Butker 25 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-5-T.Townsend. DEN 0 – KC 16
  • Q4 06:11 TD DEN (6:11) (Shotgun) 3-R.Wilson pass incomplete short left to 14-C.Sutton (35-Ja.Watson). Denver challenged the incomplete pass ruling, and the play was REVERSED. (Shotgun) 3-R.Wilson pass short left to 14-C.Sutton for 11 yards, TOUCHDOWN. DEN 6 – KC 16
  • Q4 02:00 FG KC (2:00) 7-H.Butker 52 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-5-T.Townsend. DEN 8 – KC 19

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 DEN 4th & 3 at the 38
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 50% p(FG) 54%

    (9:32) (Shotgun) 3-R.Wilson sacked at KC 41 for -3 yards (20-J.Reid).

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q1 KC 4th & 3 at the 17
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 54% p(FG) 93%

    (5:44) 7-H.Butker 35 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-5-T.Townsend.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q2 DEN 4th & 2 at the 74
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.45 EP
    p(convert) 62%

    (14:29) 9-R.Dixon punts 41 yards to KC 33, Center-48-M.Fraboni. 12-M.Washington pushed ob at KC 43 for 10 yards (49-A.Singleton).

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q2 KC 4th & 2 at the 6
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 59% p(FG) 98%

    (8:10) (Field Goal formation) Direct snap to 83-N.Gray. 83-N.Gray up the middle to DEN 5 for 1 yard (47-J.Jewell).

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q2 DEN 4th & 5 at the 90
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 48%

    (6:36) 9-R.Dixon punts 52 yards to KC 38, Center-48-M.Fraboni. 12-M.Washington MUFFS catch, and recovers at KC 38. 12-M.Washington to KC 38 for no gain (1-T.Smith).

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q2 DEN 4th & 5 at the 70
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 46%

    (2:00) 9-R.Dixon punts 51 yards to KC 19, Center-48-M.Fraboni, downed by DEN-32-D.Turner-Yell.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q2 DEN 4th & 12 at the 63
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 31%

    (:22) 9-R.Dixon punts 29 yards to KC 34, Center-48-M.Fraboni, downed by DEN-37-R.Moss. PENALTY on DEN-37-R.Moss, Illegal Touch Kick, 5 yards, enforced at KC 34.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q3 KC 4th & 7 at the 7
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.41 EP
    p(convert) 38% p(FG) 98%

    (9:19) 7-H.Butker 25 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-5-T.Townsend.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q3 KC 4th & 3 at the 43
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.10 EP
    p(convert) 57% p(FG) 40%

    (1:36) 5-T.Townsend punts 38 yards to DEN 5, impetus ends at DEN 3, Center-41-J.Winchester, downed by KC-1-J.McKinnon.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q4 DEN 4th & 10 at the 73
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 35%

    (13:00) 9-R.Dixon punts 51 yards to KC 22, Center-48-M.Fraboni. 12-M.Washington to KC 47 for 25 yards (48-M.Fraboni; 9-R.Dixon). FUMBLES (48-M.Fraboni), ball out of bounds at KC 47. PENALTY on KC-44-Ca.Jones, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at KC 22.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q4 KC 4th & 3 at the 69
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.66 EP
    p(convert) 60%

    (9:31) 5-T.Townsend punts 42 yards to DEN 27, Center-41-J.Winchester. 19-M.Mims to DEN 39 for 12 yards (43-J.Cochrane).

    See the full breakdown →