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Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades.
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Q1
Denver Broncos
4th & 3 at the 38
Denver Broncos 0 – Kansas City Chiefs 0
What Actually Happened
(9:32) (Shotgun) 3-R.Wilson sacked at KC 41 for -3 yards (20-J.Reid).
The Three Options
GO
+0.49 EP
What Happened
Model's Pick
-
50% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 35, worth +3.38 EP
- 50% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 38, worth -2.43 EP
KICK
-0.63 EP
- 54% chance to make a 55-yard field goal: 3 points, then Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.44 EP
- 46% chance to miss: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 47, worth -3.06 EP
PUNT
-0.66 EP
- Kansas City Chiefs would take over around their own 11, worth -0.66 EP
The Verdict
Chose GO
✓ matched the model
