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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Kansas City Chiefs 4th & 3 at the 43

Kansas City Chiefs 16 – Denver Broncos 0

What Actually Happened

(1:36) 5-T.Townsend punts 38 yards to DEN 5, impetus ends at DEN 3, Center-41-J.Winchester, downed by KC-1-J.McKinnon.

The Three Options

GO +1.01 EP
Model's Pick
  • 57% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 40, worth +3.33 EP
  • 43% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 43, worth -2.06 EP
KICK -0.77 EP
  • 40% chance to make a 60-yard field goal: 3 points, then Denver Broncos takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.14 EP
  • 60% chance to miss: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 49, worth -2.69 EP
PUNT -0.09 EP
What Happened
  • Denver Broncos would take over around their own 12, worth -0.09 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.10 EP