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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Denver Broncos 4th & 2 at the 74

Denver Broncos 0 – Kansas City Chiefs 3

What Actually Happened

(14:29) 9-R.Dixon punts 41 yards to KC 33, Center-48-M.Fraboni. 12-M.Washington pushed ob at KC 43 for 10 yards (49-A.Singleton).

The Three Options

GO -1.48 EP
Model's Pick
  • 62% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 72, worth +0.39 EP
  • 38% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 74, worth -4.49 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (91 yards).

PUNT -1.93 EP
What Happened
  • Kansas City Chiefs would take over around their own 32, worth -1.93 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.45 EP