Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4th & 12 at the 68

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 0 – Detroit Lions 3

(13:32) 5-J.Camarda punts 63 yards to DET 5, Center-97-Z.Triner, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -1.70 EP

32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 56, worth +2.58 EP
68% chance to fail: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 68, worth -3.68 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (85 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model