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Detroit Lions

HC Dan Campbell
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TB Home

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

HC Todd Bowles
Sunday 2023-10-15 · 16:25 Raymond James Stadium, Tampa US 🌧 Rain Spread -3.0 O/U 43.5

Win Probability

DET
56.2%
TB
43.8%
🌧 Rain

Confidence: <strong>slight edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • DET offense: +0.124 EPA/play over its last 8 games (4th in the league)
  • QB edge to DET: Baker Mayfield (TB) -0.000 vs Jared Goff (DET) +0.245 EPA/dropback
  • TB on 7 more days rest than DET
  • TB offense: -0.026 EPA/play over its last 8 games (13th in the league)

Predicted Final Score

DET 23
–
TB 21
Projected margin: DET by 2 Projected total: 44

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 6

DET

Brian Branch S Out Ankle
Jahmyr Gibbs RB Out Hamstring
Jonah Jackson G Out Ankle
Zonovan Knight RB Out Shoulder
James Mitchell TE Out Hamstring
Emmanuel Moseley CB Out Knee
Josh Paschal DE Out Knee
Khalil Dorsey CB Questionable Illness
Sam LaPorta TE Questionable Calf

TB

Anthony Nelson LB Doubtful Concussion
Shaquil Barrett LB Questionable Illness

Pulled fresh for 2023 week 6 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

DET 20
–
TB 6

Prediction missed by 12 pts on margin, 18 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 08:13 FG DET (8:13) 36-R.Patterson 30 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-S.Daly, Holder-3-J.Fox. DET 3 – TB 0
  • Q2 07:38 FG TB (7:38) 4-C.McLaughlin 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-97-Z.Triner, Holder-5-J.Camarda. DET 3 – TB 3
  • Q2 02:49 TD DET (2:49) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass short left to 14-A.St. Brown for 27 yards, TOUCHDOWN. DET 9 – TB 3
  • Q3 07:48 FG TB (7:48) 4-C.McLaughlin 36 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-97-Z.Triner, Holder-5-J.Camarda. DET 10 – TB 6
  • Q3 03:27 TD DET (3:27) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass deep right to 9-J.Williams for 45 yards, TOUCHDOWN. DET 16 – TB 6
  • Q4 12:04 FG DET (12:04) 36-R.Patterson 36 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-S.Daly, Holder-3-J.Fox. DET 20 – TB 6

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 TB 4th & 9 at the 56
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 35%

    (13:08) 5-J.Camarda punts 53 yards to DET 3, Center-97-Z.Triner. 11-K.Raymond to DET 10 for 7 yards (32-J.Hayes).

  • Q1 DET 4th & 7 at the 51
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 41% p(FG) 23%

    (10:19) 3-J.Fox punts 43 yards to TB 8, Center-47-S.Daly, fair catch by 83-D.Thompkins.

  • Q1 DET 4th & 10 at the 12
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 30% p(FG) 96%

    (8:13) 36-R.Patterson 30 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-S.Daly, Holder-3-J.Fox.

  • Q1 TB 4th & 9 at the 77
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 37%

    (5:24) 5-J.Camarda punts 42 yards to DET 35, Center-97-Z.Triner, fair catch by 11-K.Raymond. PENALTY on DET-6-I.Melifonwu, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at DET 35.

  • Q1 DET 4th & 1 at the 50
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.75 EP
    p(convert) 72% p(FG) 25%

    (1:43) 3-J.Fox punts 50 yards to end zone, Center-47-S.Daly, Touchback.

  • Q2 TB 4th & 12 at the 68
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32%

    (13:32) 5-J.Camarda punts 63 yards to DET 5, Center-97-Z.Triner, out of bounds.

  • Q2 DET 4th & 2 at the 87
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.13 EP
    p(convert) 66%

    (12:05) 3-J.Fox punts 45 yards to TB 42, Center-47-S.Daly, fair catch by 83-D.Thompkins.

  • Q2 TB 4th & 3 at the 15
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.51 EP
    p(convert) 47% p(FG) 94%

    (7:38) 4-C.McLaughlin 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-97-Z.Triner, Holder-5-J.Camarda.

  • Q2 TB 4th & 5 at the 57
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 44%

    (1:06) 5-J.Camarda punts 57 yards to end zone, Center-97-Z.Triner, Touchback.

  • Q3 DET 4th & 13 at the 34
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 29% p(FG) 66%

    (10:38) 36-R.Patterson 52 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-47-S.Daly, Holder-3-J.Fox.

  • Q3 TB 4th & 11 at the 18
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 27% p(FG) 92%

    (7:48) 4-C.McLaughlin 36 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-97-Z.Triner, Holder-5-J.Camarda.

  • Q3 TB 4th & 7 at the 62
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 39%

    (1:16) 5-J.Camarda punts 44 yards to DET 18, Center-97-Z.Triner. 11-K.Raymond pushed ob at DET 29 for 11 yards (26-K.Merriweather).

  • Q4 DET 4th & 8 at the 18
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34% p(FG) 92%

    (12:04) 36-R.Patterson 36 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-S.Daly, Holder-3-J.Fox.

  • Q4 TB 4th & 2 at the 67
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.71 EP
    p(convert) 61%

    (10:52) 5-J.Camarda punts 66 yards to DET 1, Center-97-Z.Triner. 11-K.Raymond to DET 16 for 15 yards (52-K.Britt, 49-C.Gill).

  • Q4 DET 4th & 14 at the 44 late-game
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 29% p(FG) 39%

    (3:55) 3-J.Fox punts 42 yards to TB 2, Center-47-S.Daly, out of bounds.

  • Q4 TB 4th & 4 at the 76 late-game
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 50%

    (2:02) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass short middle to 14-C.Godwin to TB 32 for 8 yards (25-W.Harris, 21-T.Walker).

  • Q4 TB 4th & 10 at the 29 late-game
    Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.97 EP
    p(convert) 30% p(FG) 78%

    (:58) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass incomplete deep middle to 88-C.Otton.