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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4th & 5 at the 57

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 3 – Detroit Lions 10

What Actually Happened

(1:06) 5-J.Camarda punts 57 yards to end zone, Center-97-Z.Triner, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO -0.59 EP
  • 44% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 52, worth +2.30 EP
  • 56% chance to fail: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 57, worth -2.88 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (74 yards).

PUNT -0.51 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Detroit Lions would take over around their own 17, worth -0.51 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model