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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Detroit Lions 4th & 8 at the 18

Detroit Lions 17 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 6

What Actually Happened

(12:04) 36-R.Patterson 36 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-S.Daly, Holder-3-J.Fox.

The Three Options

GO +1.23 EP
  • 34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 10, worth +5.27 EP
  • 66% chance to fail: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 18, worth -0.89 EP
KICK +1.51 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 92% chance to make a 35-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.75 EP
  • 8% chance to miss: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 28, worth -1.42 EP
PUNT -0.30 EP
  • Tampa Bay Buccaneers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.30 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model