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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4th & 2 at the 67

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 6 – Detroit Lions 20

What Actually Happened

(10:52) 5-J.Camarda punts 66 yards to DET 1, Center-97-Z.Triner. 11-K.Raymond to DET 16 for 15 yards (52-K.Britt, 49-C.Gill).

The Three Options

GO -0.41 EP
Model's Pick
  • 61% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.71 EP
  • 39% chance to fail: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 67, worth -3.70 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (84 yards).

PUNT -1.12 EP
What Happened
  • Detroit Lions would take over around their own 25, worth -1.12 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.71 EP