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Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades.
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Q4
Detroit Lions
4th & 14 at the 44
Detroit Lions 20 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 6
What Actually Happened
(3:55) 3-J.Fox punts 42 yards to TB 2, Center-47-S.Daly, out of bounds.
The Three Options
GO
-0.12 EP
Model's Pick
-
29% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 30, worth +3.57 EP
- 71% chance to fail: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 44, worth -1.65 EP
KICK
-0.45 EP
- 39% chance to make a 61-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.10 EP
- 61% chance to miss: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 49, worth -2.10 EP
PUNT
-0.31 EP
What Happened
- Tampa Bay Buccaneers would take over around their own 12, worth -0.31 EP
The Verdict
Chose PUNT
✓ matched the model
