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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4th & 4 at the 76

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 6 – Detroit Lions 20

What Actually Happened

(2:02) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass short middle to 14-C.Godwin to TB 32 for 8 yards (25-W.Harris, 21-T.Walker).

The Three Options

GO -1.14 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 50% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 72, worth +1.19 EP
  • 50% chance to fail: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 76, worth -3.52 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (93 yards).

PUNT -1.40 EP
  • Detroit Lions would take over around their own 34, worth -1.40 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model