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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4th & 10 at the 29

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 6 – Detroit Lions 20

What Actually Happened

(:58) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass incomplete deep middle to 88-C.Otton.

The Three Options

GO +0.67 EP
What Happened
  • 30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 19, worth +3.79 EP
  • 70% chance to fail: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 29, worth -0.65 EP
KICK +1.65 EP
Model's Pick
  • 78% chance to make a 46-yard field goal: 3 points, then Detroit Lions takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.41 EP
  • 22% chance to miss: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 39, worth -0.99 EP
PUNT -0.15 EP
  • Detroit Lions would take over around their own 11, worth -0.15 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.97 EP