Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4th & 9 at the 77

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 0 – Detroit Lions 3

What Actually Happened

(5:24) 5-J.Camarda punts 42 yards to DET 35, Center-97-Z.Triner, fair catch by 11-K.Raymond. PENALTY on DET-6-I.Melifonwu, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at DET 35.

The Three Options

GO -2.02 EP

37% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 68, worth +1.76 EP
63% chance to fail: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 77, worth -4.25 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (94 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model