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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Chicago Bears 4th & 4 at the 35

Chicago Bears 3 – Minnesota Vikings 6

What Actually Happened

(3:23) 8-C.Santos 53 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-P.Scales, Holder-16-T.Gill.

The Three Options

GO +0.86 EP
Model's Pick
  • 44% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 31, worth +3.77 EP
  • 56% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 35, worth -1.47 EP
KICK +0.45 EP
What Happened
  • 62% chance to make a 52-yard field goal: 3 points, then Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.96 EP
  • 38% chance to miss: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 45, worth -2.00 EP
PUNT -0.39 EP
  • Minnesota Vikings would take over around their own 11, worth -0.39 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.40 EP