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Minnesota Vikings

HC Kevin O'Connell
@
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Chicago Bears

HC Matt Eberflus
Sunday 2023-10-15 · 13:00 Soldier Field, Chicago US 💨 Windy Spread -3.0 O/U 44.5

Win Probability

MIN
63.6%
CHI
36.4%
💨 Windy

Confidence: <strong>clear edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • CHI defense: +0.162 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (31st in the league)
  • CHI offense: -0.134 EPA/play over its last 8 games (30th in the league)
  • Justin Fields (CHI): -0.145 EPA/dropback in prior starts
  • MIN defense: +0.073 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (28th in the league)
  • MIN offense: +0.018 EPA/play over its last 8 games (9th in the league)
  • CHI on 3 more days rest than MIN
  • Wind 16 mph

Predicted Final Score

MIN 23
–
CHI 18
Projected margin: MIN by 5 Projected total: 41

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 6

MIN

Kene Nwangwu RB Questionable Back

CHI

Khalil Herbert RB Out Ankle
Travis Homer RB Out Hamstring
Roschon Johnson RB Out Concussion
Terell Smith CB Out Ankle
Equanimeous St. Brown WR Out Hamstring
Lucas Patrick C Questionable Concussion
Eddie Jackson S Questionable Foot

Pulled fresh for 2023 week 6 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

MIN 19
–
CHI 13

Prediction missed by 1 pts on margin, 9 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 06:29 FG MIN (6:29) 1-G.Joseph 53 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-A.DePaola, Holder-14-R.Wright. MIN 3 – CHI 0
  • Q2 13:45 FG CHI (13:45) 8-C.Santos 22 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-P.Scales, Holder-16-T.Gill. MIN 3 – CHI 3
  • Q2 09:02 FG MIN (9:02) 1-G.Joseph 51 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-A.DePaola, Holder-14-R.Wright. MIN 6 – CHI 3
  • Q2 03:23 FG CHI (3:23) 8-C.Santos 53 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-P.Scales, Holder-16-T.Gill. MIN 6 – CHI 6
  • Q2 00:17 TD MIN (:17) (Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins pass short left to 3-J.Addison for 10 yards, TOUCHDOWN. MIN 12 – CHI 6
  • Q3 06:58 TD MIN (6:58) (Shotgun) 17-T.Bagent sacked at CHI 43 for -9 yards (44-J.Metellus). FUMBLES (44-J.Metellus) [44-J.Metellus], touched at CHI 42, RECOVERED by MIN-58-J.Hicks at CHI 42. 58-J.Hicks for 42 yards, TOUCHDOWN. MIN 18 – CHI 6
  • Q4 07:57 TD CHI (7:57) 17-T.Bagent up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. MIN 19 – CHI 12

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 MIN 4th & 1 at the 39
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 71% p(FG) 51%

    (8:34) 8-K.Cousins up the middle to CHI 38 for 1 yard (91-Y.Ngakoue).

  • Q1 MIN 4th & 7 at the 35
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.35 EP
    p(convert) 39% p(FG) 62%

    (6:29) 1-G.Joseph 53 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-A.DePaola, Holder-14-R.Wright.

  • Q2 CHI 4th & 4 at the 4
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.64 EP
    p(convert) 40% p(FG) 98%

    (13:45) 8-C.Santos 22 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-P.Scales, Holder-16-T.Gill.

  • Q2 MIN 4th & 8 at the 33
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36% p(FG) 67%

    (9:02) 1-G.Joseph 51 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-A.DePaola, Holder-14-R.Wright.

  • Q2 CHI 4th & 6 at the 67
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 42%

    (7:52) 16-T.Gill punts 50 yards to MIN 17, Center-48-P.Scales. 4-B.Powell to MIN 27 for 10 yards (31-Ja.Jones).

  • Q2 MIN 4th & 12 at the 63
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34%

    (6:14) 14-R.Wright punts 63 yards to end zone, Center-42-A.DePaola, Touchback.

  • Q2 CHI 4th & 4 at the 35
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.40 EP
    p(convert) 44% p(FG) 62%

    (3:23) 8-C.Santos 53 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-P.Scales, Holder-16-T.Gill.

  • Q3 MIN 4th & 5 at the 70
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 49%

    (13:42) 14-R.Wright punts 38 yards to CHI 32, Center-42-A.DePaola, fair catch by 15-T.Taylor.

  • Q3 CHI 4th & 12 at the 53
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 29% p(FG) 17%

    (9:59) 16-T.Gill punts 48 yards to MIN 5, Center-48-P.Scales, downed by CHI-12-V.Jones.

  • Q3 MIN 4th & 1 at the 86
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.39 EP
    p(convert) 76%

    (8:15) 14-R.Wright punts 45 yards to CHI 41, Center-42-A.DePaola, fair catch by 15-T.Taylor.

  • Q3 CHI 4th & 3 at the 45
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 51% p(FG) 34%

    (4:26) (Shotgun) 17-T.Bagent pass incomplete deep left to 13-T.Scott (7-B.Murphy).

  • Q3 MIN 4th & 9 at the 39
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.46 EP
    p(convert) 35% p(FG) 51%

    (:19) 1-G.Joseph 57 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-42-A.DePaola, Holder-14-R.Wright.

  • Q4 CHI 4th & 12 at the 55
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 30%

    (14:20) 16-T.Gill punts 38 yards to MIN 17, Center-48-P.Scales. 4-B.Powell to MIN 32 for 15 yards (53-T.Edwards).

  • Q4 MIN 4th & 8 at the 66
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 41%

    (12:53) 14-R.Wright punts 55 yards to CHI 11, Center-42-A.DePaola. 15-T.Taylor to CHI 23 for 12 yards (25-Th.Jackson).

  • Q4 MIN 4th & 7 at the 72
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 44%

    (6:53) 14-R.Wright punts 48 yards to CHI 24, Center-42-A.DePaola, out of bounds.