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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Minnesota Vikings 4th & 5 at the 70

Minnesota Vikings 12 – Chicago Bears 6

What Actually Happened

(13:42) 14-R.Wright punts 38 yards to CHI 32, Center-42-A.DePaola, fair catch by 15-T.Taylor.

The Three Options

GO -1.29 EP
Model's Pick
  • 49% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.64 EP
  • 51% chance to fail: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 70, worth -4.11 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (87 yards).

PUNT -1.41 EP
What Happened
  • Chicago Bears would take over around their own 28, worth -1.41 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model