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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Chicago Bears 4th & 12 at the 53

Chicago Bears 6 – Minnesota Vikings 12

What Actually Happened

(9:59) 16-T.Gill punts 48 yards to MIN 5, Center-48-P.Scales, downed by CHI-12-V.Jones.

The Three Options

GO -1.15 EP
  • 29% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 41, worth +3.19 EP
  • 71% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 53, worth -2.96 EP
KICK -1.90 EP
  • 17% chance to make a 70-yard field goal: 3 points, then Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.14 EP
  • 83% chance to miss: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 49, worth -2.74 EP
PUNT -0.49 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Minnesota Vikings would take over around their own 15, worth -0.49 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model