4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Minnesota Vikings 4th & 1 at the 86

Minnesota Vikings 12 – Chicago Bears 6

What Actually Happened

(8:15) 14-R.Wright punts 45 yards to CHI 41, Center-42-A.DePaola, fair catch by 15-T.Taylor.

The Three Options

GO -1.01 EP
Model's Pick
  • 76% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 85, worth +0.34 EP
  • 24% chance to fail: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 86, worth -5.20 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (103 yards).

PUNT -2.40 EP
What Happened
  • Chicago Bears would take over around their own 44, worth -2.40 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.39 EP